对数正态分布加速因子的Bayes估计

基于对数正态分布形式以及分布对数标准差不变的条件,运用Bayes方法对对数正态分布加速寿命试验条件下的加速因子进行分析。首先基于全寿命试验数据和随机变量函数分布的理论推导出加速因子的先验分布;然后由Bayes公式结合少量的现场截尾试验数据,得出加速因子的Bayes估计模型;最后给出实例进行说明。     

谱分析方法在仿真结果分析中的运用

文中给出了谱估计的分析，并将它直接应用于仿真系统输出量的特性分析。对于仿真的可信性问题，讨论了相容性检验方法，特别是小子样现场试验下，仿真与现场试验之间的一致性问题。     

新疆高校毕业生留疆就业对新疆稳定和发展中的作用

改革开放二十多年来，新疆在各方面取得了长足的进步，但总体上还远远落后于东部发达地区，究其原因，人才匮乏是其中重要的影响性因素之一。地处西北边疆地区的新疆，要解决人才匮乏问题，除制定优惠政策引进内地高水平人才以外，还要鼓励新疆高校培养的内地毕业生留疆就业。新疆高校内地生源留疆就业，对新疆的稳定与发展都具有重要意义。     

Casualty Rates of US Military Personnel During the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Abstract

In Operation Iraqi Freedom, which ended in August 2010, nearly 3500 hostile deaths occurred among US military personnel and 32,000 more were wounded in action (WIA). More than 1800 hostile deaths occurred during Operation Enduring Freedom (in and around Afghanistan) through 2014 and about 20,000 were WIA. A larger proportion of wounded personnel survived in Iraq and Afghanistan than during the Vietnam War, but the increased survival rates were not as high as some studies have asserted. The survival rates were 90.2% in Iraq and 91.6% in Afghanistan, compared with 86.5% in Vietnam. The casualty rates varied between the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and before, during, and after the respective surges. Amputation rates are difficult to measure consistently, but I estimate that 2.6% of all WIA and 9.0% of medically evacuated WIA from the Iraq and Afghanistan theaters combined resulted in the major loss of a limb. Elevated non-hostile death rates (including deaths due to accidents, illnesses, homicides, or suicides) resulted in about 220 more deaths in Iraq and about 200 more deaths in Afghanistan than would have been expected in peacetime among populations of the size deployed to those two conflicts.     

基于χ~2检验的惯性/卫星紧耦合系统故障检测与隔离方法

研究了一种基于χ~2检验的惯性/卫星紧耦合系统故障检测与隔离方法,该方法可利用故障检测函数自动识别单个卫导故障,并实时剔除故障星重构观测信息序列,从而避免了对紧耦合系统的影响。构建数字化仿真环境对所研究的故障检测与隔离方法进行了仿真,仿真结果表明,该方法可在卫星发生故障时及时检测并隔离故障星,并自动实现观测信息重构,保证了紧耦合系统的精度和完好性。     

Military expenditure and income distribution in South Korea

This paper attempts to investigate the long-run and the causal relationship between military expenditure and income distribution in South Korea for the period 1965–2011. Applying the bounds test approach to cointegration, we found a long-run relationship between military expenditure and the Gini coefficient with military expenditure having a positive and a statistically significant impact on income inequality. A 1% rise in military expenditure increased the Gini coefficient by 0.38%. Application of the lag-augmented causality test also reveals a unidirectional causality running from military expenditure to income inequality. The evidence seems to suggest that devoting more resources to the military sector may further worsen income inequality in South Korea.     

平流层飞艇气动特性相似缩比分析与风洞试验

阐述了平流层飞艇气动特性天地相似缩比分析设计方法,给出了刚体模型与柔性体模型完成风洞试验需满足的相似准则数,并指导完成两类缩比模型研制及风洞试验。通过对两类缩比模型风洞试验数据的分析,发现平流层飞艇不同充气内压下气动特性规律基本一致,但较刚体模型有明显的差异;柔性特征下的气动阻力系数明显高于刚体,在零攻角状态下甚至高出一倍,引发滚转气动力矩特性出现稳定与发散的本质变化。这对平流层飞艇特别是低压保形下的柔性气动特性评估,克服现有采用刚体气动特性数据或工程估算方法进行“动阻平衡”飞艇总体设计存在较大偏差的弊端,具有重要工程应用价值。     

带内双频电磁辐射对频率步进连续波雷达的虚警干扰规律

为掌握带内双频电磁辐射对雷达的虚警干扰规律,以频率步进连续波雷达为研究对象,基于理论分析与效应试验,研究了虚警目标的电平变化规律、波形特征以及出现位置规律。结果表明:受试雷达在带内双频电磁辐射作用下,不考虑互调干扰时,至多产生两个位置随机的“山丘型”虚警目标,两者距离差与双频干扰频差有关。双频干扰中两分量互相压制,即当任一干扰分量强度恒定时,随着另一个分量的增强,前者形成的虚警目标电平缓慢下降,最终降速基本恒定,而后者形成虚警目标电平逐渐升高,直至电平恒定;若双频干扰信号两分量同比例增强,则两个虚警目标电平均在初期近似线性上升,而后增速逐渐降低至零。     

潜艇上浮运动数值计算方法的研究与验证

预报潜艇上浮运动是探索研究潜艇上浮运动控制规律以及潜艇安全上浮的前提。就潜艇上浮运动的数值计算方法和计算流程进行了详细介绍,对数值计算方法中的湍流模型及离散格式等进行了优选。基于模型上浮试验结果,对数值计算的不确定度进行了分析且对数值计算结果进行了验证。证明了该数值计算的可靠性,并发现数值计算结果与试验结果很接近,验证了该数值计算方法的可行性,说明该数值计算方法和试验可为潜艇上浮运动的研究提供参考和借鉴。     

球锥体高超声速绕流的俯仰阻尼导数的数值计算

采用Navier Stokes方程描述球锥体外形非定常振动流场 ,在Etkin理论下给出俯仰阻尼导数的计算公式。对定常流场的计算采用ADI形式的NND格式 ,对非定常流场的计算采用四步Runge Kutta方法 ,并引入变系数残值光顺技术加速收敛。将俯仰阻尼导数计算结果与实验及工程计算进行了比较 ,并数值研究了其随振动中心的变化规律。